摘要
油田区块产量除了自然递减外,还会受到开井数和累计开井数等的影响。本文首先将水驱油田区块产量分为老区老井、老区新井和新区新井产量三类;然后,以开井数、累计开井数等工作量为控制变量,在递减模型的基础上对以上三类油井建立了相应的水驱油田区块产量变化的状态方程,并进行了对应的参数辨识;其次,通过求解所得模型,建立了水驱油田区块产量与时间、工作量之间的对应关系,为油田制定合理的开发规划提供了理论依据;最后,以胜利油田为例,对本文所提出的预测模型的结果进行了均方根误差、相关性和显著性检验,检验结果表明预测模型是有效的。
The block production of an oilfield is affected by the number of wells and the cumulative number of wells besides the natural decline.First of all,we divided the block production of water drive oilfield into three parts in this paper:the production of old wells in old oilfield,the production of new wells in old oilfield and the production of new wells in new oilfield.Then,taking the number of opening wells,the cumulative number of opening wells and other workloads as the control variable for the above three types of oil wells,we established the state equation of the block production variation of the water drive oilfield,on the basis of the decline model.And we carried out the corresponding parameter identification for three of them.Next,through solving the model,we established the corresponding relationship between the block production and the time and the workload of the water drive oilfield,which may provide theoretical basis for the development of an oilfield.Finally,taking Shengli oilfield as an example,we carried on three tests of root mean square error,correlation and significance for the results of the prediction models proposed in this paper.The results have shown the validity of the forecast model.
出处
《石油工业计算机应用》
2016年第1期31-35,4,共5页
Computer Applications Of Petroleum
关键词
产量预测
工作量
累计井数
递减模型
状态方程
参数辨识
production prediction
workload
cumulative wells
decline model
state equation
param-eter identification
