摘要
准确预测油气田产量对油气田的科学开发决策至关重要,而油气田的开发是一个非常复杂的非线性演变过程。基于自然界生物生长的增长规律,建立起预测油气田产量的Logistic模型,再利用灰色建模法对Logistic模型中的参数进行估计。实例表明,基于灰色建模法的Logistic模型预测精度较回归辨识方法高,预测效果较好。
The accurate forecasting of oil-gas field output is very important to the oil-gas field development. But the oilgas field development is an extremely complex non-linearity successional process. Based on the growth rule of the natural biology, the Logistic forecast model for forecasting oil-gas field output is established, and the Logistic model parameters are estimated by grey system modeling. The application practice indicates that the Logistic model based on grey system modeling has higher forecast precision than regression parameter estimation method, and has better forecast effect.
出处
《岩性油气藏》
CSCD
2009年第3期108-110,共3页
Lithologic Reservoirs
基金
黑龙江省科技攻关项目(编号:GZ05A301)资助
