摘要
从全省及市域层面,通过老龄化系数与人均GDP间的Pearson相关性检验以及数学四象限图,分析2000-2012年江苏省人口老龄化与经济发展水平的相关性及差异性。结果表明:全省老龄化系数与人均GDP相关性明显(相关性系数为0.923),但各市差异较大,可分为高度相关型、较高相关型、中度相关型和不相关型4种类型;各市人口老龄化与经济发展水平的相关性也可划分为"高—高型"、"高—中型"、"中—高型"和"低—低型"4种类型。其中:高度相关型对应于"高-高型"和"高-中型",表明这些地区经济是影响老龄化发展的主要因素;较高相关型对应于"中-高型"和"低-低型",表明老龄化与经济发展有一定关系,但生育观念、人口迁移等因素也有重要影响;较低相关型和不相关型对应于"低-低型",表明在经济水平较低阶段与老龄化相关性较小,生育观念、人口迁移等是影响老龄化的主要因素。
The relationship between population aging and regional economic development is close. Jiangsu is the first province entered aging all of the country. The continued rapid development of the population aging has attracted widespread attention at home and abroad. From the province and city level, by Pearson correlation test between aging coefficient and per capita GDP, u- sing mathematical four quadrant diagram, with the combination of qualitative and quantitative, correlation and differentiation of pop- ulation aging and economic development can be analyzed in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2010. The results show that： 1） From the provincers point of view, the correlation coefficient of aging and per capita GDP is 0. 923, it is very significant, which reflects that rapid economic and social development can promote the process of aging population in Jiangsu. 2） Municipalities have passed the significant correlation coefficient test, but the differences are large, therefore, all the cities can be divided into four types： uncorrelated type, the typi- cal representative is Suqian City~ moderate correlation type, mainly distributed in the North J iangsu except Xuzhou; higher correlation type, mainly distributed in the middle areas of Jiangsu and Xuzhou~ highly correlation type, mainly distributed in the South Jian- gsu. 3）The relationship between population aging and economic development level exists significant spatial difference and the re- stricting factors of regional aging are intricate. All of the cities in province can be divided into four types：the first quadrant is ＂ high-high type＂, namely high per capita GDP, high aging population, mainly distributed in Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Zhen- j iang. The second quadrant is ＂high-medium type＂, namely high per capita GDP, moderate population aging, the typical one is the provincial capital of Nanjing. The third quadrant is＂medium-high type＂, namely medium per capita GDP, high aging population, mainly distributed in Yangzhou, Nantong and Taizhou. The forth quadrant is the ＂low-low type＂, namely low GDP per capita, low population aging, mainly in Xuzhou, Yancheng, Lianyungang, Huai~ an and Suqian. 4）The correlation and differences of aging and economic development has certain characteristics and regularities： highly correlation type corresponds to the ＂high-high type＂ and ＂high-medium type＂, suggesting that region economy is the main factor of aging development; higher correlation type corresponds to the ＂ medium-high type＂ and ＂low-low type＂, suggesting that there is a certain relationship between aging and e- conomic development, but the fertility concept, migration, etc. also have important influence; low correlation and uncorrelated type correspond to the ＂low-low type＂ ,reflecting that at the lower stage of economy, correlation of economic development and aging is small, fertility concept, population migration, etc. are the main factors affecting the aging.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第3期87-91,共5页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271128)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(164320H116)
关键词
人口老龄化
经济发展水平
相关性
差异性
江苏
population aging
economic development
correlation
differences
Jiangsu Province
