摘要
随着21世纪以来中国的迅速和强劲崛起,日美澳印拉近距离,打着价值观的旗号,以过时的冷战思维为指导进行"民主同盟"、"准同盟"的构建与尝试,企图围堵遏制中国。通过军事威慑、经济阻挠、外交干涉、舆论主导、意识形态攻击等手段,日美澳印对中国进行软、硬两手制衡。自2006年提出战略合作框架以来的近十年里,日美澳印战略合作持续推进,虽然四方战略对话停滞,但是双边和三边合作呈现强化趋势,并逐渐形成一个"准同盟化的联合体"。显然,日美澳印存在结盟的可能,但在四方战略对话仍未重启的情况下,"日美澳印民主同盟"的实现并不容易。尽管遏制中国是日美澳印战略利益的交汇点,但追求本国利益最大化才是各国利益追求的终点。目前,在日美澳印围绕遏制中国的这一战略合作与博弈中,四国尚未找到追求本国利益最大化的平衡点。因此,中国应积极抓住时机,采取不同的策略,瓦解四国战略合作,突破崛起困境,营造良好的周边环境。
With China's rapid and spectacular rise in the 21 st century, Japan, the U.S., Australia, and India are drawing closer on a shared value-based identity, and may head toward an alliance or quasi-alliance of democracy to hedge against or even contain China out of an outdated Cold War mentality. The four counties are likely to take both hard and soft balance to contain China through military deterrence, economic obstruction, diplomatic intervention, public opinion misleading, ideological attacks and other means. It has been almost ten year since the 'Japan-U.S.-Australia-India' strategic cooperation framework was proposed in 2006. Although the quartet strategic dialogue has stalled, the strategic cooperation among them has continued to strengthen at bilateral and trilateral levels, featuring a quasi-alliance. However, it is not so easy for Japan, the U.S, Australia, and India to achieve an 'alliance of democracy' before the quartet strategic dialogue is formally resumed. China is certainly the common strategic target of the four countries, but to maximize their respective national interests is their ultimate goal. Considering such an alliance is still at its rudimentary stage, China should actively seize the opportunity to adopt a different strategy, so as to break down the quadrilateral strategic cooperation, overcome the current security conundrum, and create a favorable environment for its peaceful rise.
出处
《国际展望》
CSSCI
2015年第3期123-141,共19页
Global Review
