摘要
本文通过精算方法模拟测算2015年机关事业单位养老金改革后的替代率,来探究改革对机关事业单位退休人员养老金收益的影响。研究结果显示,由于新制度实行个人账户、社会统筹和职业年金相结合的部分累积制,退休金与社会平均工资及个人缴费工资有一定连动机制,可降低长寿风险、在职收入提高或通胀给退休人员带来的经济风险;特别是职业年金的设置可以显著提高替代率水平,体现养老保险在个人生命周期中的熨平收入作用。简言之,改革并不必然明显降低退休金的替代率水平,反而可能带来更多弹性并形成正向的激励机制。同时,职业年金的投资回报率将极大地影响退休后的收入,所以应积极谨慎地妥善投资;另外,如果工资持续高速增长,退休者的相对收益将是下降的,此时就需要政府注意代际之间的调节与转移。
With the purpose of answering the question of whether recent reform will decrease pension benefit of public sector staff, this study carried out a simulation model calculation on the post-reform replacement ratios. The results shows that, in the new public sector pension scheme, which combines individual account, social pooling, and occupational annuity, there is certain level of connection among retirement payment, social average wage, and indi- vidual salary, which can help to avoid longevity risk and economic insecurity of pensioners due to inflation and in- crease in on-the-job salary. In particular, the occupational annuity can greatly increase the replacement ratio and re- distribute incomes within one＇s life cycle. In a word, the new reform will not bring down the pension replacement ratio, but may create more elasticity and positive incentives. However, it is worth noting that, the retirement income will be significantly affected by the investment return of the occupational annuity fund, therefore it is crucial to en- sure its investment performance. Moreover, if the social salary keeps increasing, the relative income of pensioners will be decreasing, which requires inter-generationgovernment moderation and transfer.
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期79-85,92,共8页
Insurance Studies
关键词
机关事业单位
养老保险
替代率
职业年金
public sectors
pension
replacement ratio
occupational annuity
