摘要
采用2004—2013年间上海星级酒店客房月度出租率时间序列数据,利用TRAMO/SEATS季节调整方法,把上海星级酒店客房出租率序列具体分解为季节要素、不规则要素和趋势要素,对上海星级酒店客房出租率的季节性特征、长期趋势和周期性波动特征进行了案例式分析。研究表明,上海不同星级酒店客房出租率均表现出明显的季节性特征,并根据"峰"、"谷"、"肩"等要素形成了不同的且随时间变化的差异性季节结构;上海星级酒店客房出租率经历了下降后缓慢回升长期趋势,并带有几次周期性波动过程;系列突发性事件并未对上海星级酒店客房出租率形成持久性效果,且带有显著的"时间分配性效应"。在此基础上,结合气温因素构建计量模型定量分析了上海星级酒店客房出租率季节性的成因,并提出对策建议。
Seasonality is one of the most representative attributes of Shanghai tourism industry, and it is often seen as a major problem that this industry has to face. The main purpose of this article is to analyze seasonal structure in room occupancy rate of star hotel in Shanghai by means of TRAMO/SEATS. This method is applied to the monthly series of room occupancy rate, covering the period from 2004 to 2013, decomposing it into seasonal factor, irregular factor and trend factor series. Then these three parts are briefly discussed separately in order to give an objective understanding of the seasonallity of room occupancy rate of star hotel in Shanghai. It was concluded that seasonality produces very significant and different patterns in different category star hotel in Shanghai based on the combination of seasonal element of peak, low and shoulder in room occupancy rate time series. In the long run, the room occupancy rate of star hotel in Shanghai hase experienced upgrade firstly and then descended slowly, and such emergency event as 2010 Shanghai EXPO did not have persistent effect on it. Then, this paper makes econometric analysis about the effect of temperature on seasonallity of star hotel room occupancy rate and gives some policy suggestions.
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期169-177,共9页
Economic Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AJY008)
