摘要
传统的评估方法无法同时评估风险的模糊性和随机性,因此,利用云理论能够把模糊性和随机性有效地集成在一起的优点,将云理论中的云重心评价法引入到铁路危险货物运输风险评价中。给出该方法的具体评估过程,构建铁路危险货物运输风险评价的云模型,实现定性概念向定量表示的合理转换,进而分析其整体风险水平。通过实例分析表明:基于云理论的评价方法得到的结果与客观实际相符,具有广泛的适用性。
T raditional evaluation method can’t evaluate fuzziness and randomness of risk simultaneously ,so the advantage of cloud theory that combine the fuzziness and randomness together is adopted ,cloud barycenter evaluation method of cloud theory is introduced into the risk evaluation for railway dangerous freights’ transportation .The evaluation process of the method is put forward ,the cloud model of risk evaluation for railway dangerous freights’ transportation is built ,the reasonable transportation from qualitative concept to quantitative expression is realized ,then the overall risk level can be analyzed .Case analysis shows the result based on theory accord with objective reality ,the method has a wide applicability .
出处
《交通科技与经济》
2015年第1期64-68,共5页
Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
关键词
危险货物
铁路运输
云理论
云重心评价法
风险评价
dangerous freight
railway transportation cloud theory
cloud barycenter evaluation method
risk evaluation
