摘要
基于Sen的可行能力理论,本文结合因子分析模型、Logit模型和夏普里分解方法,从功能性活动视角出发,构建了农民工回流决策行为的分解框架。在此基础上,运用2009年至2012年上海实地调研数据进行了实证分析,结果显示:(1)农民工的回流比例较高。2009年选择回流的农民工占43.79%,到2012年则增加到52.42%;(2)随着时间推移,拥有高等教育、或25-34岁、或入沪时间1-3年的农民工回流比例增加最多;(3)对农民工回流率贡献最大的三个可行能力指标分别是经济状况、生活状况和精神感受;(4)随着教育程度的提高,农民工回流大幅降低;随着年龄的增加,农民工回流逐步增加;随着进城时间的加长,农民工回流呈"∪"形变化。研究发现的主要政策含义有:农民工自由发展和各项能力的获得对其回流存在显著负影响。增加经济收入,改善生活状况和加强精神感受是减少农民工回流的有效手段;同时,努力提高农民工教育水平,加强职业技能培训,对年长者和进城时间较长者给予额外的关注和重视,这些措施有利于减少农民工回流。
According to Sen＇ s capability theory, this paper constructs a decomposition framework of migrant workers＇ return will by integrating factor analysis model, Logit model and Shapley＇ s method from the perspective of functional activities. On this basis, the author of this paper uses the field survey data of 2009 and 2012 to analyze migrant workers＇ return will. The results indicate that： （1） Migrant workers have strong return will. In 2009, 43.78% of migrant workers choose to return, while this proportion increases to 52.41%; （2） As time passes by, return intention of rural migrant workers with high educational background, 24-34 years old or living in cities for 1-3 years increases mostly; （3） The first three capability index that contribute most to migrant workers＇ return will are respectively economic condition, living condition and spiritual feelings; （4） From group analysis, it is seen that migrant workers＇ return will significantly drops with their improving educational degree; Along with the growing age, their return will gradually increases; And as the time they live in this city extends, their return will exhibits a U-shaped change. Main policy implications that this research discovers are： Migrant workers＇ free development and gain of skills exert negative influence on their return will. Increasing income, improving living conditions and strengthening spiritual feelings are effective methods to reduce the return of migrant workers. Meanwhile, striving to promote migrant workers＇ educational degree, strengthening the training of professional skills for them, giving extra care to the elderly and those who work in the city for a long period of time, all these efforts are conducive to reduce the return of migrant workers.
出处
《中国人力资源开发》
北大核心
2015年第1期87-96,共10页
Human Resources Development of China
基金
国家自然基金项目"城市化进程中中国农民的福利问题"(71473165)
"中国农村金融失灵市场的内在根源及福利影响研究"(71273171)
"农户创业行为与融资约束"(71273172)
"种稻大户农业技术扩散行为与示范机制研究"(71263023)
"低碳经济背景下农户农业技术应用行为与决策模型研究"(71063010)资助
关键词
农民工
可行能力
回流
夏普利值分解
Migrant Workers
Capability
Return
Shapley Value Decomposition
