摘要
为了提高沿海地区防洪排涝工程水文参数设计的合理性,利用Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数以及条件概率理论,分析了同一潮位过程中高低潮之间的关联性,以此提出了一种新的设计潮型方法.基于该方法,以江苏省连云港、射阳闸和天生港3个典型潮位站为实例,设计了4种重现期下(20,50,100,200 a一遇)的设计潮型,并与传统的同倍比放大法及其改进后的设计方法、设计成果进行了比较.结果表明:相对于其他方法,该方法充分考虑了高低潮之间的关联性,合理性更好,具有理论相对完善的特点;利用该方法所获得的潮型,其潮差明显大于传统方法及其改进后的方法,若从工程设计的安全角度考虑,采用传统的方法会存在一定的设计风险;该方法所采用的原理具有普适性,也可应用于其他相似水文变量组合优化设计.
In order to optimize the design of hydrological parameters for flood protection and drainage project in coast area, based on Gumbel - Hougaard Copula function and conditional probability theory, the correlation characteristics between high tidal level and low tidal level in the same tidal process line were analyzed, then a new method for design tide curve was proposed. Based on this method, considering three return period conditions（ T = 20,50,100,200 a） , the design types of tide were given at Lianyungang, Sheyangzha and Tianshenggang tide gauges in Jiangsu province as examples. Comparing with same multiple enlarging method and the improved same multiple enlarging method, the new method considers sufficiently the correlation characteristics between high tidal level and low tidal level, therefore, it is more perfect in theory; the tidal range from the new method is significantly larger than from other methods, and from a security standpoint, other methods have some design risks; the new method can also be extended to other similar design of combination of hydrological variables.
出处
《排灌机械工程学报》
EI
北大核心
2014年第4期312-318,共7页
Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engineering
基金
水利部公益性项目(201001070)
关键词
潮型
防洪
排涝
条件概率
COPULA函数
同倍比放大法
tide curve
flood protection
drainage
conditional probability
Copula function
same multiple enlarging method
