摘要
研究低碳经济的主要影响因素,对河南省转变经济发展方式、建设中原经济区具有重要的现实意义.基于扩展的STIRPAT模型,利用河南省1978—2010年统计数据,对河南省低碳经济的主要影响因素及其贡献率进行了实证研究.结果表明:对碳排放总量有显著正向影响的主要因素有人口增长、经济发展、能源强度与单位能耗碳排放量的交互作用、能源消费结构、国际贸易分工;对人均碳排放量有显著正向影响的因素有经济发展水平、能源强度与单位能耗碳排放量的交互作用、能源消费结构、产业结构、国际贸易分工.产业结构对碳排放总量的影响不显著,但对人均碳排放有显著的正向影响.河南省碳排放的最大正向影响因素及贡献率最大的均为经济增长,而能源强度和单位能耗碳排放量交互作用对碳排放具有一定的抑制作用.
Discussion on the main factors affecting low-carbon economic development has an importantsignificance on changing developmental patterns and Constructing Central Plains Economic Region for HenanProvince. And by using Henan provincial panel data from 1978 to 2010,this paper extends STIRPAT model andconducts an empirical study on the main factors and contribution rate affecting low-carbon economy development.The results show that population,GDP per capita,interaction between energy intensity and energy consumption perunit of carbon emissions,the international trade division,energy consumption structure have a significant positiveeffect on carbon emission. While the industrial structure has a very small impact on carbon emission. Population,GDP per capita,interaction between energy intensity and energy consumption per unit of carbon emissions,theinternational trade division,energy consumption structure,industrial structure have a significant positive effect onthe per capita carbon emissions. Continued growth in GDP per capita is the largest positive contribution on thegrowth of carbon,while change in interaction between energy intensity and energy consumption per unit of carbonemissions has an inhibition in the growth of carbon emission.
出处
《河南科学》
2014年第10期2184-2189,共6页
Henan Science
基金
河南省软科学研究计划项目(122400450330)
