摘要
根据马莲河流域地形地貌特点、水资源分布状况及社会经济、能源产业的发展情况,将流域概化为5个水资源分区,并根据社会经济发展和水利工程建设速度,采用指标分析法进行2020年和2030年供需水量预测和平衡分析。对12个供需方案进行专家概率咨询,计算出期望供需水量和期望缺水率。最后利用决策树法进行风险分析,并对决策树法进行改进,将专家咨询概率法引入到决策树敏感性分析中,根据专家概率咨询结果对备选最优方案进行再次筛选,最终得到2020年、2030年的最优水资源供需分配方案。经敏感性分析后,得到2020年社会经济高速发展、水利工程高速建设方案为最优决策方案,流域总需水量为6.45亿m3,供水量为6.00亿m3,缺水率为6.50%;2030年的最优方案为2030年社会经济低速发展、水利工程高速建设方案,流域总需水量为10.33亿m3,供水量为8.72亿m3,缺水率为15.62%。
Based on the characteristics of landforms,water resources distribution and the development of the social-economic and energy industry in Malian River basin,5 water resources sub-regions were generalized to form the river basin system. Then 12 plans were formed according to social and economic development speed and water conservancy engineering construction speed in 2020 and 2030. The indicators analysis method was used in forecasting water supply and demand quantities and the water balance analysis. And then the expected water supply and demand quantity and wa-ter shortage rate were calculated through experts probability consulting through the 12 plans. Finally,risk analysis was conducted utilized improved decision tree method which introducting of expert consulting probabilities to the sensitivity analysis of decision tree. Through the second selecting of alternative optimal solution according to expert consultation probability,and the optimal water supply and distribution plans in 2020 and 2030 were obtained,which could avoid the errors development speed inaccurate forecasts brings,produce the greatest benefits of water resources and minimize the risk of water shortage. After sensitivity analysis,the optimal decision plan in 2020 was the program of social economy high-speed development and water conservancy engineering high-speed construction,and the results are as follows：the total amount of water requirement is 645 million m3 while the supply amount is 600 million m3 ,and water shortage rate is 6. 50% . In 2030,the optimal decision plan is the program of social economy high-speed development in 2020 and low-speed development in 2030,and water conservancy engineering high-speed construction. The total amount of water requirement is 1033 million m3 while the supply amount is 872 million m3 ,and the water shortage rate is 15. 62% .
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2014年第10期72-76,共5页
Yellow River
基金
甘肃省水利厅水资源费项目(2010)
甘肃省科技厅重大专项(1203FKDA035)
关键词
风险决策
改进的决策树法
供需水量预测
水资源供需平衡分析
马莲河流域
risk decision-making
improved decision tree method
forecast of water supply and demand quantities
supply and demand balance a-nalysis of water resources
Malian River basin
