摘要
人均历史累积碳排放概念能够更好衡量碳排放的历史责任,使"共同但有区别的责任"原则更具操作性。目前存在多种人均历史累积碳排放的算法,包括动态人口算法(在某一时间段人均碳排放量的累加和)、静态人口算法(历史上逐年碳排放量的累加和与该国当前人口数之比)和"人年"算法(各国累积的碳排放总量除以累积人数的每人每年碳排放量)。利用这3种算法,本文计算了"G8+5"国家1900年至2010年的人均历史累积碳排放。结果表明,2010年我国的人均历史累积碳排放在这3种算法下分别为30.224tC/人、25.795tC/人和0.406tC/人年。美国在同一时段的数值分别达到我国的16.49倍、12.24倍和11.71倍。由此可见,3种算法都很好显示了发达国家和发展中国家在大气温室气体浓度升高上的历史责任。理论分析表明,基于"人年"概念的人均累积碳排放算法保证了每个人在每年都拥有相同的碳排放权,相对更好地融合了人际公平、代际公平和区域公平的原则。从历史的角度看,欧盟主要排放国和伞形集团的碳排放总量和人均排放量都已过了峰值点,在近几年呈缓慢下降趋势,而我国仍处于快速上升阶段。因此,只有从人均历史累积碳排放的概念出发,采用最佳算法厘清各国的历史责任才有助于更加合理地分配未来碳排放空间。
Compared to other terms in the field of climate negotiations,the concept of historical cumulative emissions per capita has better distinction for historical responsibilities,which makes the principle of ＂common but differentiated responsibility＂ more operational.However,several algorithms for calculating historical cumulative carbon emission per capita existed,including dynamic population algorithm （sum of carbon emission per capita for each year）,static population algorithm （cumulative carbon emission divided by population in current year） and person-year algorithm （cumulative carbon emission divided by cumulative population）.By using these three algorithms,this study calculated the historical cumulative carbon emission per capita from 1900 to 2010 for G8＋5 nations.The results show that the historical cumulative carbon emissions per capita from 1900～ 2010 for China were 30.224 tC/person,25.795tC/person and 0.406tC/person-year （In table 1）,respectively,while the values for United States were 16.49,12.24 and 11.71 times stronger than China.Overall,the historical cumulative carbon emission per capita for developed countries is significantly higher than China no matter what algorithm was used,therefore,they are more responsible for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.From historical perspective,the total carbon emissions of China are more than that of umbrella groups,and so they are with the carbon emissions per capita compared to that of major nations of European Union.Therefore,only by using theory of historical cumulative carbon emission per capita for future allocation of carbon emission rights can better clarify the historical responsibilities as for a certain country or emission group.
出处
《第四纪研究》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期823-829,共7页
Quaternary Sciences
基金
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目课题(批准号:2012BAC20B07)
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(973项目)"人均历史累积排放问题研究"(批准号:2010CB955204)共同资助
关键词
人均碳排放
累积碳排放
人均历史累积碳排放
减排
carbon emission per capita
cumulative carbon emission
historical cumulative carbon emission per capita
reducing carbon emissions
