摘要
以全国各省份历年粮食单产资料为基础 ,通过适当的处理 ,定义了三个反映中国粮食产量风险水平的指标 :历年平均减产率 ,历年减产变异系数和风险概率。这三个指标分别从不同角度刻画了中国粮食产量的风险状况。进而以这三个指标为基础采用迭代自组织动态聚类分析方法分别划分了全国省级粮食生产单元的风险区 ,分区的结果反映了近五十年来中国粮食生产的基本状况和风险水平。最后从中国各地孕灾环境、致灾因子和生产力水平差异等方面探讨了风险水平的区域分异的原因。
Based on the per unit area grain yield data throughout China at the level of province, three indexes,which reflect the risk level of grain yield of China from different angle are defined,namely:the annual decrease rate,the annual variation coefficient and the risk probability.The method of iterative self-organization dynamics assemble is adopted to divide China into several risk regions at different risk levels on the basis of the indexes.The result demonstrates the outlook and risk level of the grain yield in the past fifty years,which would provide a reference for policy makers to plan crop production and make risk decision.Furthermore,the reason of regional risk difference from the factors of disaster-inducing environment,disaster-inducing factors and productivity is also discussed.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第3期373-379,共7页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
世界银行第四期对华技术合作 No.A3
"中国防灾减灾分析与对策"项目
