摘要
利用重庆地区27年（1978~2004年）的粮食实际产量资料,采用正交多项式法分离出趋势产量和相对气象产量。从相对气象产量波动的百分率着手,定义了减产率指标、减产率变异系数、减产率概率指标,根据这些风险评价指标,分析了重庆地区粮食单产风险水平的分布规律,结合风险评估理论探讨了重庆地区粮食产量水平分布与灾害因素（孕灾环境、承灾体、致灾因子）的关系。结果指出,大部分的风险评价指标的分布具有一定区域性和连片性;致灾因子的性质、强度、频率和范围是造成粮食风险水平地区差异的重要原因。研究结果为重庆粮食产量风险预测及防灾减灾提供科学依据。
In the thesis,on the basis of yields data of Chongqing from 1978 to 2004,grain yield per unit was divided into trending yield and relative meteorological yield by means of orthogonal polynomial.According to the risk assessment indices： mean and variance coefficient of rate of yield reduce,and risk probability of rate of yield reduction,were chose and the relationship between the distribution and disasters factors（the disasters pregnant environment,disasters causing factors and characteristics of damaged situation） were analyzed.The most of risks evaluate distribution of index signed to have certain local area as a result with connect slice.It were the important reason that results in risk difference in the level region to the property,strength,frequency and scope of disaster factors.The results were available for reference in predicting the risk of yield losses,resisting disaster and decreasing losses.
出处
《西南农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期2054-2058,共5页
Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATC2008M44)
关键词
气象产量
风险评估
Meteorological yield
Risk evaluation
