摘要
采用SD方法 ,建立了城市水环境产业与人口、经济、资源和环境之间相互关系的动态、非线性模型(SDMUWEIC) ,在不确定分析基础上 ,预测了未来城市水环境产业的发展规模、市场容量和市场结构 .表明城市水环境产业将为建筑、通用机械设备和水处理专用设备等提供广阔的市场 ,从而促进消费 ,带动国民经济其他行业的发展 .本文还进一步预测了不同城市人口比例和水价增长速度 。
With the application of system dynamics,a dynamic, nonlinear model (SDMUWEIC) was developed in this paper in order to reflect the relationships of population, economic, resources and environment. Through a systematic procedure of model validation and uncertainty analysis, the model was applied for predicting and analyzing the future market capacity and constituents of urban water infrastructure. It illustrated the volumes and trends of potential capital market in construction, general mechanical equipments and water treatment instruments as well as their relevant influencing factors including water pricing and urbanization rate. Several different scenarios were further under test to reveal the sensitivity of different uncertain components.
出处
《环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第4期1-7,共7页
Environmental Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目 (70 0 730 4 0 )
关键词
城市
水环境产业
SD模型
发展规模
市场容量
市场结构
中国
urban water environmental infrastructure
system dynamic
future market capacity
market structure
