摘要
用国家气象中心的 T6 3和 T10 6中期数值预报产品 ,计算所划定区域的 K指数和 TOT指数作为预报因子 ,并统计与江苏省 9个代表站降水的相关。用逐步回归方法建立了江苏省 4 - 7月第 4 - 6天的 PP降水预报方程 36个、MOS降水预报方程 10 8个 ,多级判别临界值 144组。
By using T106 and T63 metaphase numerical forecasting products,K-exponent and TOT-exponent in defined area were calculated as forecast predictors,and the correlation with the nine representative stations was counted.With stagewise regression procedure,the 36 PP-precipitation forecasting equations?the 108 MOS-precipitation forecasting equations and the 144 multi-level distinguishing critical values were established.Based on these,the probability forecast of Jiangsu Province precipitation is made.
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第2期242-246,共5页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
关键词
T106数值产品
概率预报
统计分析
T106numerical prediction products Probability forecast Statistical analysis
