摘要
在中国采矿产业结构发展变化分析的基础上 ,运用灰色GM( 1 ,1 )模型 ,进行了采矿业生产产量的发展趋势预测分析与估算 (预测平均误差小于 0 8% )。同时根据矿区土地损毁实地调查的有关结论 ,对中国采矿业发展造成的挖损、塌陷、占压等损毁土地类型进行了预测。结果表明 ,中国 3大采矿业产品产量不断增加 ,但产值结构变化不大 ,能源矿开采产值比重最大 ,占 79 6 1 % ,而能源生产中又以煤炭比重最大 ,占 75 5 %。中国矿区土地资源的损毁面积将随着采矿业的发展而不断增加 ,煤炭开采对土地的损毁最严重 ,其中煤矿塌陷地占损毁面积的 93 89%。
Land utilization in mining areas has gained increasing attention within land resources researches in China. This paper, firstly, analyzes the industrial structure change of mining industry in China. Then, by using the Grey Model (GM), production trend of mining industry in China is predicted. As the average error of prediction is lower than 0.8 percent, the results are relatively exact. Moreover, by integrating theory with practice, land destruction types from 1995 to 2000, such as excavation damage, subsidence and occupancy, which are all induced by mining industry, are calculated. The results indicate that though the output of mining industry has greatly increased, little changes happen to its production value structure, of which energy production value proportion is the most, occupying 79.6%. With respect to energy production, proportion of coal production value accounts for the most, which is 75.5%. It is also argued that most of the destructive land area should be ascribed to coal mining, subsidence area induced by which accounts for 93.89% of destructive land area. Therefore, it is very necessary to predict the mining industry development trend and thereby adjust mining industry structure.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第2期17-21,共5页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目 ( 4 98310 2 0 )
关键词
采矿业发展
矿区废弃土地
土地损毁
预测分析
中国
Mining industry development
Waste land in mining field
Land destruction
Prediction.
