摘要
根据酒泉市1988—2007年的人口数量、耕地面积、粮食产量等资料,运用耕地压力指数作为测度粮食安全程度的指标,分析了酒泉市粮食安全状况的变化,并针对耕地压力指数的变化特点,建立了灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测了未来11 a该市的粮食安全状况。
According to the population,arable land and food production in Jiuquan city from 1988 to 2007,the pressure index of cultivated land as a measure of food security indicators are used,food security situation changes of Jiuquan City were analyzed.It also the establishment of a gray GM（1,1）model to predict the food security situation in the future 11 years according to the changes characteristics in the pressure index for farmland of Jiuquan city.
出处
《甘肃农业科技》
2011年第12期23-25,共3页
Gansu Agricultural Science and Technology
关键词
粮食安全
耕地压力指数
动态分析
灰色预测
酒泉市
Food security
Cultivated land pressure index
Dynamic analysis
Grey prediction
Jiuquan city
