摘要
为了从三峡工程大量安全监测数据中 ,找出内在变化规律 ,建立一个能客观预测关键建筑部位变形及应力、应变情况的数学模型 ,采用“探索性数据”分析法即类比优选法对预测模型的构建进行了研究。以三峡二期上游围堰第一道防渗墙为例 ,用多元回归、灰色模型、时间序列统计方法构造了 3种预测模型 ,通过对预测模型的计算值及实测值进行对比分析 ,可以看出 :多元非线性回归模型的残差较小 ,计算结果的拟合程度及模型反映的规律性均较好 ;时间序列模型次之 ;灰色模型的拟合程度及残差均偏离较大。实测数据检验表明 ,回归模型预测效果较好 ,其测值在预报范围内的可能性为 95 % ,为此 ,选定多元非线性回归模型为预测模型。
In order to find out the intrinsic regularities from enormous observed data in TGP's safety monitoring, a mathematic model which can forecast the stress strain status at key construction positions would be established. An 'explorative data' analytic method (analog optimization method) was used for studying the structure of forecasting model.To take the displacement of the first seepage prevention wall of TGP's upstream coffer dam as illustration,three kinds of forecasting models were built respectively by multiple regression analysis,grey model and time series analysis. Comparison between calculated results by these models and measured values showed that the residual error of 1st model is rather small, that of the 3rd model next;for the fitting degree of models, the 1st model is rather better, 3rd model next and the 2rd model worse.The final detection of measured data showed that the effect of 1st model is still better, the reliability of forecast representing measured data in the forecasted range is 95%. So, the multiple nonlinear regression model is suggested to be selected as the forecasting model.
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第2期54-57,共4页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
