摘要
在路基填筑施工过程中,用多项式与时间序列AR组合模型预测其沉降变形发展。根据沉降观测值,采用统计分析方法识别和建立多项式预测模型,预测在某时期沉降趋势值;用平稳时间序列分析方法建立随机部分模型,并预测沉降随机部分值,二者之和即为某时期沉降预测值。随着新观测数据的不断加入,及时修改预测模型参数值,达到实时预测之目的。工程实例研究表明:组合模型预测值明显优于单一趋势模型预测值。组合模型一步预测误差绝对值大多数情况下小于5 mm。预测步数越多,预测误差则越大。
During the filling construction of the soft soil roadbed, the total settlement value could be predicted by using polynomial and time-series combined model. On the basis of measured settlement data, the polynomial prediction model could be discriminated and established by statistics; and the settlement trend value at a certain future time would be predicted. The random settlement could be gotten by random prediction model that is established by smooth and stable time series analysis method. The sum of above two prediction values is the settlement prediction value of the roadbed at some certain time. With the addition of new settlement data, the model parameters are continuously modified. The practical settlement prediction of the soft soil roadbed shows that the combined model is superior to the single polynomial model; and the absolute error value between measure and one-step prediction value is mostly below 5 cm. The more prediction step is, the greater error is.
出处
《岩土力学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第9期1481-1484,共4页
Rock and Soil Mechanics
基金
湖南省交通厅科技发展项目(No.200113)。
关键词
沉降
动态预测
多项式与AR组合模型
settlement
dynamic prediction
polynomial and time series combined model
