摘要
在户籍制度逐步放开的背景下,首都流动人口的有效疏解与京津冀地区人口的合理布局具有重要的战略意义。使用2011至2015年间国家卫计委流动人口调查数据,从个体居留意愿的视角分析了人口调控政策的效果。研究表明,不论是分区域还是分职业、户籍地来看,流动人口调控收效甚微,其症结在于首都各区流动人口"留而不流"。为了打破这种局面,首都在出台人口调控政策时应继续落实"以业控人"的措施来间接调控人们的居留行为,同时利用人口调控强度与居留意愿之间存在的正U型关系,并结合市场机制来达到人口有效疏解的目的。
In the context of the gradual opening of the household registration system,the effective dissolution of the floating population in the capital and the reasonable layout of the population in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region have important strategic significance.Using the data of Dynamic Monitoring of the Floating Population from 2011 to 2015,this paper analyzes the effects of the floating population control policies from the perspective of the Individual Desire of Residence.The research indicates that the effect Of population control policies is weak in terms of sub-samples;the reason is that the floating population in all districts of the capital stays but doesn't flow.In order to break this situation,the capital can indirectly affect people's residing preference by regulating their employment;the government can also use the positive U-shaped relationship between the intensity of population regulation and the residence intention and combine market mechanisms to achieve the purpose of effectively reliving population.
作者
冯虹
刘永安
艾小青
FENG Hong;LIU Yong-an;AI Xiao-qing(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期36-46,23,共12页
Population and Development
基金
国家社科基金重点项目(编号:16ARK001)
北京市社科基金重点项目(编号:15JDZHA006)
首都社会建设与社会管理协同创新中心资助
关键词
人口调控政策
居留意愿
流动人口
Population Control Policy
Residence Intention
Floating Population
