摘要
单个人口结构变化不仅直接和间接作用于经济增长,人口内部各结构还相互影响间接作用于经济增长。基于我国2000～2015年省级面板数据,建立空间杜宾模型实证分析人口年龄、教育、城乡结构变化以及相互影响的变化对我国及区域经济增长的直接、空间和偏效应。结果表明,全国范围内,人口年龄、教育、城乡结构变化促进经济增长且空间效应更大,同时人口年龄、教育结构变化随着城乡结构水平提升对经济增长存在显著的正偏效应。而人口年龄、教育、城乡结构变化以及人口三个结构变量相互影响的变化对东、东北、中、西部地区四大区域经济增长影响又各不相同。
A single demographic change not only directly and indirectly affects economic growth,but also the internal structure of the population interacts with each other indirectly.The article is based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015,this paper establishes a spatial Dubin model to empirically analyze the direct,spatial and partial effects of population age,education,urban and rural structural changes and mutual influence on China's and regional economic growth.The results show that nationwide,population age,education,urban and rural structural changes promote economic growth and spatial effects are greater,while population age structure,population education structure changes with the population level of urban and rural structure has a significant positive bias effect on economic growth.The changes in population age structure,population education structure,population urban-rural structure change and population structure change have different effects on economic growth in the four regions of east-ern,northeastern,central and western regions.
作者
赵春燕
ZHAO Chun-yan(Development Institute of Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China)
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期12-23,共12页
Population and Development
基金
国家社科基金项目(15BJL092)
关键词
人口结构
经济增长
空间杜宾模型
区域比较
Demographic Structure
Economic Growth
Spatial Dubin Model
Regional Comparison
