摘要
提出了一种基于内蕴误差评价的电力系统短期负荷预报方法。该方法建立在对负荷规律性和预报方法有效性全面评估的基础上 ,使预报和误差评价融于一体。运用该方法可以有效地诊断导致预报误差的主要因素 ,并在预报前估计预报误差的上下限 ,从而对发掘提高负荷预报准确度的潜力有所帮助。实例表明 ,该方法应用于短期负荷预报和预报精度评价是有效的。
A new load forecasting method based on intrinsic error evaluation is proposed. The method is developed on the basis of thoroughly evaluating load regularity and forecast model efficiency, and merges forecast calculation together with error evaluation. By use of the method, it is helpful to improve the accuracy of forecast and to diagnose the main factors resulting in forecasting errors. Load forecasting practices in a real system by the method illustrate that higher forecast accuracy can be produced and high and low error limits can be estimated prior to forecast.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第22期37-40,共4页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
