摘要
台风灾害的致灾因子具有多重性，这使得台风灾害的风险评估相对于其它灾害来说更加复杂．本文以广东省１４个市辖区为例，分别从台风暴雨和台风大风的角度分析了台风致灾因子的时、空、强规律；结合进行研究区承灾体的易损性分析，即选择研究区人口密度、人均ＧＤＰ和衣业占ＧＤＰ的比重等３个指标综合反映研究区台风灾害的潜在损失风险．在此基础上，本文进一步评估了研究区台风灾害所造成的风险水平的地区差异．结果表明，阳江、深圳、汕尾、珠海、湛江是广东省１４市辖区中受台风灾害影响风险最高的５个区域。
Typhoon has multiple factors that can make disaster, so the risk assessment of typhoon is more difficult than other hazards. This paper selects 14 cities in Guangdong Province as target regions with analyzing the temporal,spatial and intensity character in typhoon rainstorm and typhoon gale respectively. Incorporating the vulnerability analysis of target area, the density of people, average GDP and proportion of agriculture in GDP are chosen to reflect the potential loss risk of typhoon in target areas synthetically. On the basis of these,works, this paper assesses the regional difference of risk level in the target regions. From the result,it can be known that the highest risk areas of the 14 cities in Guangdong Province wih threat of typhoon hazard are Yangjiang, Shenzhen, Shanwei, Zhuhai, and Zhanjiang.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第1期34-43,共10页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
教育部跨世纪青年人才基金与骨干教师项目资助
"瑞土再保险公司与北京师范大学灾害保险与风险研究中心"委托项目资助
