制度冲击与中国经济的周期波动被引量：18

The Institutional Shocks and China's Business Cycle

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摘要经济制度变革成为中国宏观经济经历的影响最深远的整体性、持久性的外生冲击之一,制度变动的冲击对我国经济周期的变动特征产生了深刻的影响。本文运用经济计量方法对制度冲击改变我国经济周期特征进行了检验,并通过市场化程度、非国有化水平和开放度三个制度冲击变量,检验了其与我国经济周期波动的相关性,结论证明,在我国受政治背景的影响而出台的重大的经济制度改革对经济的发展影响巨大而深远,制度变动冲击对经济的周期变动的方向及程度起到了较大的决定作用。 The transformation of China＇s economic system is a unitary persistent exogenous economic shocks. This paper tested the hypothesis that whether the institutional shocks change the characteristic of business cycle after the China＇s economic reform, and tested the correlation between three institutional shocks variables and the business cycle variable. The result shows the institutional shocks have made great influence on China＇s macroeconomic, as well as the characteristic of business cycle.

作者杜婷庞东

机构地区深圳大学经济学院招商银行博士后工作站

出处《数量经济技术经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第6期34-43,共10页 Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基金国家社会科学基金项目03BTJ007(中国金融周期的统计研究)支持。

关键词经济周期经济波动制度冲击 Institutional Shocks Business Cycle Economic Fluctuation

分类号 F234.4 [经济管理—会计学]

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参考文献16

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