摘要
根据甘肃河西区出山口水文站最新径流资料 ,对该区年、月径流统计特性 (如自相关性、长持续性、径流年代变化、趋势性、周期性及年内变化等 )利用Hurst系数、简单分波法等进行了分析 ,建立了该区年径流统计预测模型 .结果表明该区年径流存在着明显的趋势性及长持续性 ,5 0年代径流偏丰 ,90年代有偏枯趋势 .建立的时间序列预测模型 ,做出两步预测 ,相对误差可控制在 2 0 %以内 .
On the basis of the runoff data recently collected from mountain-pass stations in the Hexi area of Gansu Province, the statistic characteristics of runoff, including auto-correlation, long-term continuity, runoff variation in different decades, and statistic components (trend, period) are analyzed, and a predictive statistic model is established for the prediction of annual runoff. The results show that the runoff in the studied area has an obvious trend and a long-term continuity, and that the runoff is abundant in 1950s, and short in 1990s. The error of prediction by the model may be controlled within 20%.
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第6期83-86,共4页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家"九五"重点攻关课题"西北内陆干旱区出山口径流形成与水资源评价"子题的部分成果 ( 96 -912 -0 1-0 2 -0 4)
