摘要
对 195 1～ 2 0 0 0年期间汛期 (6～ 8月 )山东区域旱涝与全国主要多雨带的 8个分布类型的逐年对应关系进行了具体的对比和论述。并对烟台、青岛、潍坊、济南、临沂、菏泽等 6个地区汛期旱涝的天文、海洋、大气环流和气象要素等方面的预报物理因子进行了全面的普查、筛选、精选和综合分析 ,并分别建立了汛期降水量预报物理方程。并以青岛地区为例 ,对汛期降水理的多种交叉学科的预报物理因子进行了最优集成 ,为青岛地区汛期降水量和旱涝建立了分多级的可操作的预报物理模型。该文优选出来的汛期降水的多学科物理因子对短期气候预测有重要的学术意义 。
The annual corresponding relations between the flo od and drought of the flood season (JJA) in the areas of Shandong province and t he 8 distribution patterns of the main rainy-bands over the whole country durin g 1951-2000, are contrasted an d discussed in detail. And the predicted physical factors including astronomy, o cean, General circulation, meteorological element, ect, which influence on the f lood and drought of the flood season over the 6 areas of Yantai, Qingdao, Weifan g, Jinan, LinYi, and Heze, are made for general survey, screen selection, carefu lly chosen and integrated analysis, and the predictive physical equations are se t up for the precipitation of the flood season in the 6 areas, respectively.In addition, the multi-categorical and operable predicative physical models are developed for the precipitation and flood and drought of flood season in Qingda o region.The multi-branch physical factors choiced carefully, which are mention ed above f or precipitation of the flood season (JJA), have the great academic value. Among them, the Predictive Physical equations and model have the important applied va lue for the seasonal and annual prediction of flood and drought of flood season( JJA) in the Shandong region.
出处
《山东气象》
2001年第3期12-17,共6页
Journal of Shandong Meteorology
关键词
全国汛期雨型
山东地区
响应关系
汛期旱涝
降水量
预报物理方程
预报物理模型
Patterns of the main rainy-bands
Precipitation of Flood sea son
Flood and drought
predictive physical equations and model
Shandong provi nce
