摘要
以湖南常德市28年的竹缕舟蛾发生面积资料为依据,先运用波谱分析法确定了竹缕舟蛾的发生周期,然后运用拓扑预测法预测了竹缕舟蛾2000年内的发生状况。结果表明,竹缕舟蛾的发生周期有3年、5年和22年,与实际情况基本相符;拓扑预测竹缕舟蛾在1994年、2000年会大发生,这与周期的预测结果相吻合。
On the basis of twenty -three years' statistical data of outbreak areas of Loudonta dispar(Kiriakoff) in Changde City of Hunan Province outbreak cycles of this insect have been determined by the method of spectrum analysis.Then, the future outbreak state is forecasted with topologic prediction.The results indicate that the outbreak cycles are 3 years, 5 years and 22 years respectively, which conforms basically with real conditions. There will be serious outbreaks in 1994 and 2000, and this prediction is in keeping with the result of the spectrum analysis.
出处
《经济林研究》
1991年第1期38-42,共5页
Non-wood Forest Research
关键词
竹缕舟蛾
发生周期
波谱分析
拓扑预测
Loudonta dispar spectrum analysis, outbreak cycle, topologic prediction.
