摘要
本文以湖南省常德市36年来黄脊竹蝗的发生面积为依据,先运用波谱分析法确定了其发生周期,再用马尔柯夫链法预测了其未来的发生状态。结果表明,黄脊竹蝗的大、小发生周期分别为17年和9年,与实际情况基本相符;1989年发生状态为较重灾害,也与实际情况相吻合。说明此种方法基本可靠,可作为制定防治决策的依据。
On the basis of 36 years' statistical data of outbreak areas of thebamboo locust in Changde City, Hunan Province, its out break cycles have been determined by the method of spectrum analysis, then the future outbreak state is forecasted by the method of Markov's chain. Results indicate that the outbreak cycles of bamboo locust are 9 years (small cycle)and 17 years (big cycle), and that the outbreak state in 1989 Would be more serious. These results conform basically with real conditions. The study demonstrates that the mothods are reliable and can be used as a basis for decision making to control bamboo locust.
出处
《中南林学院学报》
CSCD
1990年第1期1-6,共6页
Journal of Central South Forestry University
关键词
黄脊竹蝗
发生周期
马氏预测
蝗虫
bamboo locust, outbreak cycle, spectrum analysis, Markov's chain forecast
