摘要
:本文应用时间序列建模方法 ,对反映中国市场经济晴雨表的股市进行了实证研究 ,不仅使用大家熟知的平稳时序建模过程 ,而且更重要的是 ,在考察政府干预——央行降息对股市影响方面 ,这里并未采用以往的假设统计检验 ,而是通过一种定量分析模型——干预模型来进行研究。从而得出与股价、利息率呈反向变动这一理论相吻合的实证结果。
In this paper, from a demonstrative perspective, we m ai nly discussed on how to apply the time series analysis in economic activities. T he time series modeling methods are used to study the stock market of China that serves as the weatherglass of Chinese market economy. During our research work, we have used the well-known modelling process of calm time series.What is more important that we use a quantitative model—the Intervention Analysis Model, in stead of Hypothesis Stat. Test to study the impacts resulting from the Lowering Interest of China Bank on the stock market of our country. Thus we got demonstr ative results, which comply with the theory that the stock price varies in the r everse direction of that of the interest.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
2001年第4期23-27,共5页
Forecasting
