摘要
针对智能运输系统 (ITS)亟待解决的理论热点问题 ,利用随机服务系统理论给出进入路段 (含信号交叉口 )车辆数服从Poisson分布的实时动态行程时间预测的基本公式 ,为提高预测的精度 ,又结合多元统计回归方法添加修正项 ,进而提出一般性公式 ,并给出预测结果。
Aiming at the theoretically focused problem to be solved in Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), this paper presents the fundamental formulas of real-time dynamic travel time prediction using stochastic service system theory as the number of vehicles entering into the link (including signal intersection) subject to Poisson distribution. Furthermore, in order to improve the precision of prediction, the paper puts forward the general formulas and provides the prediction results by adding modified term and using multivariate statistical regression analysis method.
出处
《公路交通科技》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第2期44-46,65,共4页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(79870045)
