摘要
20世纪后 50年，世界纸和纸板产量由 1950年的 4300万 t增加至 1999年的 31571 2万 t， 49年平均年增长率为 4 24％，每 10年平均年增长由 50年代的 313 5万 t，增加至 90年代的 854 8万 t；但每 10年平均年增长率由 50年代的 6 27％，降低至 90年代的 3 55％。 如果没有特殊情况， 21世纪的发展，可以按 20世纪后 50年发展情况作出的拟合曲线进行预测， 21世纪后 10年平均年增长量为 0 19亿 t，但增长率降低至 1 33％。 2100年全世界原浆产量预计为 4 90亿 t， 21世纪后 10年平均年增长量为 0 04亿 t，增长率更低至 0 95％。原浆产量对纸和纸板产量的比值，进一步降低至 29 17％。 21世纪的造纸纤维原料将主要由二次纤维担当，很多国家越来越重视扩大废纸的回收利用。 4 90亿 t原浆中，各种木材原料浆占 90％左右的局面，不会有很大的变化，但材种和地区分布会有相应的变化。合理配合和利用非木材纤维，将得到更大的注意。
In the later 50 years of 20 th century,the production of the paper and board from 43 million tons in 1950 raised to 315 million tons in 1999.The average increasing rate was 4.24％ per year in 49 years.The production in one year was average increased 3.14 million tons in first 10 years but 8.5 million tons in last 10 years.However,the increasing rate of one year in first 10 years was 6.27％ and in last 10 years was reduced to 3.55％ .The ratio of the pulp versus paper and board from 80.74％ reduced to 56.73％ .This trend will be continued in the 21st century if no unusual change.In last 10 years of 21st century,the average production per one year will be increased 19 million tons but the increasing rate of one year will be reduced to 1.33％ .The virginal pulp would be produced 490 million tons in 2100.In last 10 years of 21st century,the average production per one year will be increased 4 million tons and the increasing rate of one year will be reduced to 0.95％ .The production ratio of the virginal pulp versus paper and board will be reduced to 29.17％ .The balance of the production in virginal pulp for paper and board will be mainly supplied by secondary fiber.The 90％ of virginal pulp produced from wood will be still not changed considerably,but the wood species and their location would be obviously changed.However,the non－ wood plant will be taken more attentions.
出处
《国际造纸》
2001年第1期5-11,共7页
World Pulp and Paper
