摘要
利用中国1999—2013年房地产价格指数数据,采用阈值自回归模型(TAR),实证检验了房地产的投资需求与中国房价波动的非线性关系。借助于阈值模型,本文将货币供应量作为关键阈值变量。研究表明,当货币供应的增长速度低于模型的估计阈值(16.3%),家庭数量、收入及房屋使用成本是影响房地产价格的重要变量,因此,消费需求和房地产供应是房地产价格线性波动的决定因素。然而,当货币供给增长速度超过估计阈值,股票价格和通货膨胀率成为影响房地产价格的重要因素,这表明投资性需求已经逐渐成为主导近几年中国房价价格波动的关键性因素。
Adopting the threshold autoregressive model （TAR）, this paper tests the nonlinear relationship between real estate investment demand and price fluctuation, using 1999 to 2013 real estate price index data in China. A threshold model is used to confirm money supply as the key threshold variable. When the growth rate of money supply is below the model＇s estimated threshold value （ 16.3 % ）, household number, income, and user cost of housing capital are significant variables. It appears that service demand and housing supply are essential increating the linear movement of housing prices. However, when the growth rate of money supply exceeds the threshold value, stock prices and the inflation rate become important, which show the speculative demand has become dominant in residence price movements of the crucial factor.
出处
《贵州财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期30-38,共9页
Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金"房价波动与企业投融资行为研究:微观传导效应及互动机制"(71263008)阶段性成果
