摘要
本文构建了上海地区CGE模型,探讨了航空制造业与航空运输业之间的关联作用,以及投资政策所产生的经济效应。结果表明:增加航空制造产业的投资,对于第二产业与整体经济增长有一定的促进作用,但对于居民消费会产生抑制效应。该产业投资额存在一个最优值,可以最大程度带动经济发展;而下游的航空运输业可适当减少投资额。总体而言,航空产业链有必要优化投资结构,并将部分航空运输业的投资转移出去,提高社会投资效率。此外,在航空产业发展的同时,应关注相关产业自身升级与技术溢出,发挥协同效应。
The paper builds a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model to study the relation ship between aviation manufacturing industry and air transportation industry. It analyzes the effects of different investment policies in Shanghai. Simulation results indicate that, increasing the investment of aviation manufacturing industry could promote the amount of secondary industry and macro-economy, but might restrain the household consumption. There exists an optimal level of investment about aviation manufacturing industry, which could maximum the economic growth. The increment of investment should be limited appropriately. On the whole, the investment structure of the industry chain need to be improved, and residual investment formerly spend on air transportation industry could be transferred to other industries to perfect the efficiency of capital. Besides, the special attention to the industrial upgrading and technology spillover in related industries must be paid in order to create synergistic effect along with the development of aviation industry.
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第7期61-67,共7页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"世界产业发展新趋势与我国培育发展战略性新兴产业跟踪研究"(12AZD046)
关键词
航空制造业
航空运输业
可计算一般均衡模型
产业关联
Aviation manufacturing industry
Air transportation industry
Computable general equilibrium
Industrial relationship
