摘要
利用中国1980-2012年的数据资料，通过ARDL模型实证解析利率市场化、实际利率与经济增长的长期关系，然后建立误差修正模型对三者之间的短期关系进行刻画。结果发现，经济增长与利率市场化、实际利率之间存在长期协整关系；短期内利率市场化抑制经济增长，长期内有助于经济增长；短期内实际利率波动有助于经济增长，而长期内，高实际利率水平则有碍经济增长。
Using a ARDL model and annual dataset from 1980 to 2012 in China ,this paper examines the long-run relationship between interest rate liberalization, real interest rate and economic growth , then a ECM was es-tablished to study the short - term relationship among them. The results show that there is a co - integration relation-ship between economic growth, interest rate liberalization and real interest rate ; Interest rate liberalization is con-duce to foster economic growth in the long run, while restraint that in the short - term. However, fluctuation of realinterest rate can enhance economic growth in the short run, but high real interest rate is harmful to economic growthin the long run.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期47-50,共4页
On Economic Problems
基金
湖北省教育厅2014年人文社科项目
