摘要
世界性的金融危机让西方许多国家面临严重的主权债务危机,地方政府债务危机成为世界不稳定的因素之一。近年来,我国地方政府债务风险逐渐增大,2013年IMF、穆迪、惠誉及高盛等外资金融机构均发布了对中国地方政府性债务的警示报告,指出我国地方政府性债务存在失控风险。文章回顾了国内外政府债务风险评价研究现状,建立了地方政府风险评价指标体系,并试图通过模糊综合判断法和层次分析法建立地方政府风险评价模型,最后就我国某市地方政府债务指标进行实证研究,以论证模型的可行性。
The global financial crisis has brought the serious sovereign debt crisis to many western countries, and the local government debt crisis has become one of the unstable factors in the world. China＇ s local government debt risk has gradually increased in recent years. In 2013, the IMF, Moody, Fitch, Goldman Sachs and other foreign-funded financial institutions issued warnings to China＇ s local government debt report, indicating that there exists the risk of runaway for China＇ s local government debts. The article reviews the research status of government debt risk assessments at home and abroad, establishes an eval- uation index system of local government risks and tries to apply the fuzzy comprehensive judgment method and analytic hi- erarchy process （AHP） to establish an assessment model of local government risks, and finally conducts the empirical re- search on a local government debt index as to demonstrate the feasibility of this model.
出处
《企业经济》
北大核心
2014年第5期156-159,共4页
Enterprise Economy
基金
辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目"地方政府债务融资绩效评价研究"(批准号:L13DGL050)
2013年辽宁省大学生训练项目基金"蓝天科技有限公司"(批准号:201311035016)
关键词
地方政府债务
模糊综合判断
层次分析
模型
local government debt
fuzzy comprehensive judgment
analytic hierarchy process
model
