摘要
本文主要探讨了经济结构、经济冲击和政治偏好等因素在新兴市场国家汇率制度选择过程中所起到作用。研究结果表明:经济结构和政治偏好对的汇率制度选择影响显著,而经济冲击的影响则相对不明显。这些特点与理论分析中对"短视决策者"的描述相符。借鉴新兴市场国家的历史经验并结合我国当前实际情况,人民币汇率制度应继续保持适度弹性,并且随着我国经济政治环境的变化而适时做出调整。
This paper investigates the effect of economic structure, economic shock and political preference on choice of exchange rate regimes in emerging market countries. The research results indicate that economic structure and politi- cal preference have a significant effect on the choice while the effect of econom- ic shock is not obvious. The findings conform to the description of the ＂short-sighted decision makers＂ in theoretical analyses. In view of the experi- ence from emerging market countries and the current situation in China, the RMB exchange rate regime should remain flexible and be ready to adapt to the changing economic and political environment.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期154-164,共11页
Journal of International Trade
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目:<我国外汇储备的科学管理及运用战略问题研究>(12JZD027)
国家社会科学基金:<我国主权财富基金投资与风险管理研究>(13BJY175)
关键词
新兴市场国家
汇率制度
经济结构
经济冲击
政治偏好
Emerging market country
Exchange rate regime
Economic struc-ture
Economic shock
Political preference
