摘要
本文以风电标杆电价政策为例,构建中国可再生能源政策量化评价的分析框架。借鉴实物期权的基本思想,本文通过随机动态递归构建了风电标杆电价政策量化评价模型,将传统能源市场的不确定性和中国可再生能源总量规划的现实情况结合起来,同时市场在各期根据收益最大化对市场环境做出反应,决定是否投入技术研发以降低未来风电开发成本。应用这个分析框架,本文对中国风电标杆电价政策进行了量化评价。研究发现:(1)目前的标杆电价水平低于全社会政策收益最大化的最优水平,而且考虑风电碳减排正外部性下的最优标杆电价高于忽略外部性的情形。(2)单纯从经济利益上考虑的中国风电产业尚无法仅仅依靠标杆电价政策而形成一个纯市场导向的产业安排。(3)将碳交易市场与风电产业链对接起来的结构是能够通过市场自生的。
Using the case of feed-in tariff for wind power, the purpose of this paper is to construct a framework for quantifying impact of Chinese renewable energy policy. Based on the principle of real options, this paper introduces an evaluation framework for wind power feed-in tariff policy by recursive stochastic dynamic programme, and takes into account the volatility of traditional energy and national renewable energy target. At a more microeconomic level, market/ enterprise is modeled to maximize the expected value by making R＆D decision. Using this framework, the paper quantitatively evaluates Chinese feed-in tariff policy for wind power. We find that： （ 1 ） current average tariff is sub-optimal and optimal tariff level is higher by internalizing externality of carbon emission reduction into model specification ; （2） it may be difficult for wind power industry, including generation, transmission and system balance, to be market-oriented; but （3）this conclusion would be changed if one introduces carbon trading market to be connected with wind power market.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期89-103,共15页
Economic Research Journal
基金
新华都商学院能源经济与低碳发展研究院低碳项目
国家社科基金重大项目(No.12&ZD059)
能源基金会中国可持续能源项目(G-1311-19436)
教育部重大项目(No.10 JBG 013)
关键词
可再生能源
政策量化评价
风电标杆电价
随机动态递归
Renewable Energy
Policy Quantitative Evaluation
Recursive Stochastic Dynamic Programme
