摘要
现阶段中国人口存在总量增长、老龄化加速与劳动力下降以及地域不平衡性的特点.以平顶山市劳动力人口变化趋势为研究对象，运用短维灰色GM（1，1）模型进行平顶山市劳动年龄人口预测，运用线性回归进行平顶山市劳动参与率分析，并建立平顶山市劳动力人口预测模型，最终预测2010-2019年平顶山市劳动力人口供给情况.结果表明：以15～64岁为统计口径的平顶山市劳动力人口在2010-2019年间将保持平稳缓慢增长状态，年均增长速度约为0．4％，尚未出现劳动力短缺拐点.
Chinese population exists some characteristics like quantitative growth,accelerating aging,declining labor force and geographical imbalance. Local population studies mostly concern provinces workforce research. The short-dimensional gray GM（1,1） model was used for the working-age population projection in Pingdingshan City,and linear regression was used to analyze labor force participation rate,then the final labor force supply situation forecast was carried out for Pingdingshan City during 2010-2019. Results show that,the 15 to 64 years old for statistical caliber labor force in Pingdingshan City during 2010-2019 will maintain steady slow growth in the state,and an average annual growth rate of about 0.4%,has not yet appeared labor shortages inflection point.
出处
《河南科学》
2014年第2期291-294,共4页
Henan Science
基金
河南省重点科技攻关项目(132102310126)
平顶山学院统计学重点学科资助项目(2012002)
平顶山学院中青年骨干教师培养资助项目(2012080)
