多维距离下中国省际贸易空间面板互动模型分析被引量：58

A Research on Chinese Inter-provincial Trade Based on Spatial Panel Interaction Model under Multi-dimensional Distances

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摘要研究中国省际贸易的影响因素对于促进区域协调发展、形成全国统一市场有着重要意义。本文采用1998-2011年中国29个省份间的双边贸易面板数据,建立空间面板互动模型,从多维距离的视角,分析了影响中国省际贸易的"推力"、"拉力"和"阻力"。针对数据的时空分析表明,中国省际贸易在流出和流入方面存在着不对称性、不均衡性、邻近性和空间关联性。模型分析表明:源地和汇地的工业增加值比例对省际贸易有着正向影响;汇地的地方保护行为严重妨碍外地货物流入该地;在所有距离因素中,地理距离阻碍省际贸易,且影响最强;省份间的经济距离在一定范围内有利于省际贸易,产业距离对省际贸易有利,技术距离则无显著影响。本文认为,除了传统的加强交通基础设施建设和破除地方保护等措施外,为了促进省际贸易,还需提高产出增加值,突出省份间的产业特色,并理性看待省份间的经济发展差距。 Using data on origin-destination type bilateral trade flow of Chinese 29 provinces from year 1998 to 2011, and employing spatial panel interaction model, this paper examines the effects of propulsive, attractive and frictional forces between two provinces on inter-provincial trade flows, focusing on multi-dimensional distances and local protectionism. The spatio-temporal analysis on origin-destination panel data indicates that there exist asymmetry, disproportionality, contiguity and spatial association in Chinese interprovincial trade. The model estimated results reveals that, after accounting for effects coming from scale, structure and economic extroversion of provinces, local protectionism and geographical distance impedes inter-provincial trade severely; When in appropriate range, inter-provincial economic development gap can facilitate inter-provincial trade, but hinder when beyond a certain range; Industrial structural difference between provinces is in favor of inter-provincial trade, but their technological gap has no significance. The paper includes that, to promote inter-provincial trade, we need to go beyond eliminating local protectionism and improving transportation infrastructure, and develop measures taking into account provincial realities, such as economic development and industrial structure.

作者王庆喜徐维祥

机构地区浙江工业大学经贸管理学院

出处《中国工业经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第3期31-43,共13页 China Industrial Economics

基金国家自然科学基金青年项目"产业集群知识流动的微观机制研究:邻近效应网络结构与吸收能力"(批准号71103160) 国家自然科学基金面上项目"外商群体投资与地方产业升级研究"(批准号71073147) 浙江省哲学社会科学重点研究基地"技术创新与企业国际化研究中心"重点项目(批准号10JDJS02Z)

关键词省际贸易多维距离地方保护空间面板互动模型 inter-provincial 1Lrade multi-dimensional distances local protectionism spatial panel interactionmodel

分类号 F429.9 [经济管理—产业经济]

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