摘要
本文考虑在对外开放与城市化快速发展背景下,结合规模效应、技术效应和结构效应等三个途径研究中国碳排放强度影响因素,选择第二产业比重、人均GDP、能源强度、对外贸易依存度和城镇化率等影响因素,根据协整理论分析认为1980-2011年我国碳强度与影响因素变量之间存在长期均衡关系。通过构建状态空间模型并运用卡尔曼滤波对其估计分析,结果验证了前面的结论,并分别得到各因素对我国碳排放强度的动态影响。最后根据结论提出政策建议。
This paper considers the background of external liberalization and the rapid deveh）pment of urbanization, and comhine with of the scale eft^ct, technical effect and structural effect of three theoretical researches of Intluence factors of carbon emission intensity China, select the proportion of the second industry, per capita GDP, energy intensity, the degree of dependence on foreign trade and urbanization rate of five factors, aceurding to the analysis of the cuinlegratiun theory there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China ＇s carbon intensity of 1980 -2011 years and five variahles. By cunstructing the state space model and analysis using Cahnan filter to estimate, resuhs prove the above conclusion, and obtained the dynamic influence of various factnrs on the strength of carhon emissions in China. Finally, according to the relevant conclusions, it puts fnrward policy recommendations.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期61-67,共7页
Statistical Research
基金
国家社科基金青年项目"中国节能减排效率评价及影响因素研究"(09CTJ008)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
碳排放强度
影响因素
协整理论
状态空间模型
动态影响
Carbon Emission Intensity
Influencing Factors
Cointegration Theorty
State Space Model
Dynamic Influence
