摘要
本文将神经网络理论与模糊系统理论相结合 ,建立了宏观经济非线性预警模型 ;运用模糊逻辑推理将经济专家经验引入到宏观经济的预警分析中 ,使系统具有处理非线性、不确定性问题的能力 ,实现了预警过程的智能化 ;本文利用实际数据建立了具有转折点预测意义的、基于模糊神经网络的宏观经济波动预警模型 ,并对中国 1 999年和 2 0 0 0年进行了尝试性景气预报。
In this paper we establish the macroeconomic nonlinear early warning model with neural networks theory and fuzzy theory. In order to make the system able to process the nonlinear and uncertain inputs and intelligentize the early warning process, we introduce the experience of experts at economy into the macroeconomic early warning analysis by using fuzzy logical reasoning. At last we establish the macroeconomic fluctuation early warning model, which is significant in the forecasting of turning point, based on fuzzy neural networks with the actual data and attempts to forecast the business conditions of China in 1999 and 2000 with this model.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
2000年第4期42-45,共4页
Forecasting
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目!(79770 0 4 6)
关键词
宏观经济
预警模型
模糊推理
模糊神经网络
macroeconomic early warning model
fuzzy reasoning
fuzzy neural networks
nonlinear
