摘要
长序列干旱时空变化能准确地反映区域气候干湿变化趋势基于1901—2009年松嫩平原气温、降水等气象要素,采用干燥度数、气候倾向率、M-K突变检验、空间分析等方法分析松嫩平原生季百年序列干湿变化的时空特征及原因。结果表明:1)松嫩平原长季干燥度呈现全区减小趋势,地表趋向湿润,且具有自西向东递的空间特性;2)干燥度气候倾向率空间分布为-0.019×10-10.004×10-1 a-1,松嫩平原西部干燥度下降趋势显著;3)干燥度代变化较明显,且1926年为由干旱向较湿润转化的突变点;4)降水量决定地表干燥度变化的主要因素。
The article is inclined to present our analysis of the drought characteristics of Songnen Plain in the growing season in the past 109 years （1901 - 2009 ） due to the temporal and spatial change, which helps us to make clear the drought-wet changing trend of the regional climate. Based on the data of the air temperature, precipitation and other meteorological elements of Songnen Plain dur- ing 1901 - 2009 from the time series of 3.1 climatic datasets in Cli- matic Research Center of the University of East Anglia, we have done an analysis of the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and changing cause of aridity index in the growing seasons via the Mann- Kendall test, climatic inclination rate and the spatial analysis meth- ods. The results of our analysis show： （1） The aridity index of the growing season has a degrading trend, indicating that the land surface tends to be wetter and a spatial variation feature of gradual decrease from the west to the east during the past 109 years. （2） The climatic inclination rate of aridity index is -0.019 ~ 10-1- 0.004 ×10-1 a-1, and the aridity index in the western part of Songnen Plain proves to be less than - 0.005 × 10-1 a-1 with 0.1 confident test- ing, suggesting that the declining trend is rather noticeable in this area. （3） The inter-decadal variation of the aridity index is more evi- dent with the abrupt changes in the aridity index, which reveals the relative humid trend of the climatic in 1926. （4） Reviewing the sig- nificant change of the precipitation, the potential evapotranspiration, as well as the aridity index in the growing season, it can be conclud- ed that the changing tendency of the aridity index is mainly dependent on the precipitation, which contributes to the increase of humid in- dex. The results objectively reflects the character of drought-wet change on the songnen Plains.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期284-289,共6页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42171217)
黑龙江省自然科基金项目(F201041)
