摘要
采用Penman-Monteith模型计算了东北三省72个台站1960-2008年生长季的潜在蒸散量,进而计算了潜在蒸散量与降水量的比值,得到各站生长季干燥度。东北三省1960-2008年生长季干燥度总体上表现出从西南向东北方向逐渐减小的变化特征,大值区位于辽西地区,小值区位于黑龙江省北部。东北区生长季降水量与潜在蒸散量相当;东北南部生长季略干,东北北部较为湿润。东北地区生长季干燥度近50年增加趋势通过显著性检验;东北地区干燥度序列在1996年发生了突变。东北三省1973年以来干旱绝收面积、成灾面积占旱作农作物播种面积比例的增加趋势均通过了显著性检验。以1996年为分界点,1997-2007年成灾面积、绝收面积占旱作农作物播种面积比例分别是1973-1996年均值的1.99倍和5.58倍,上升幅度非常明显。从而证明了采用Penman-Monteith模型得到的干燥度公式来评价东北地区生长季干旱是符合实际的。
Potential evapotranspirations of growing seasons from 72 meteorological stations in three provinces of northeastern China during 1960 -2008 are calculated by Penman-Monteith model. Ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation is computed, and aridity of growing seasons for each of the stations is got. With the maximum value in western Liaoning and the minimum value in northern Heilongjiang, aridity of growing seasons demonstrates a variation characteristic of gradual decreasing from the southwest to the northeast during 1960-2008 in three provinces of northeastern China. Precipitation of growing seasons and potential evapotranspiration in northeast China are equivalent. The growing season in south of northeast China is drier than that in north. The aridity increasing trend in growing seasons in recent 50 years in northeast China passed the significance test. A sudden change in the time series of aridity occurred in 1996 in northeast China. The increasing trend of ratio of total crop failure area and drought affected area in sown area of crops in dry farmland since 1973 in the 3 provinces of northeast China passed significance test. The average ratios of items above during 1997 - 2007 are 1.99 times and 5.58 times of those during 1973 - 1996, respectively. The increase is significant. It is proved that using aridity formula based on Penman-Monteith model to estimate the future drought tendency of growing seasons in northeast China accords with reality.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2010年第4期5-10,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(G200925)
中国科技部公益性(气象)行业专项(GYHY20070607)
