摘要
将江苏省气候、土壤、水稻产量、田间试验等相关资料作为CERES-Rice模型的输入文件,通过校准和验证获得江苏水稻品种徐稻2号的遗传参数,利用WCRP耦合模式CMIP3的多模式数据下的A2和A1B两种方案,并结合CERES-Rice模型,模拟分析A2和A1B两种情景下2020s(2011-2040)时段不同高温强度及其持续时间的热害对水稻产量的影响。结果表明,CERES-Rice模型在江苏地区具有较好的模拟能力;A2和A1B两种情景下高温热害会使江苏省水稻产量下降,最高减产率为17%。高温强度一定时,高温持续日数越长,水稻减产率越大。高温持续日数一定时,温度越高对水稻造成的危害越重。可见,未来气候情景下孕穗-抽穗期高温热害将使江苏省水稻减产,研究结果可为合理制定江苏水稻生产防灾减灾措施提供理论支撑。
Using the meteorological, soil, rice yield and field CERES-Rice model, the genotype parameters of rice cuhivar processes. Then combined the CERES-Rice model with the management data of Jiangsu province as the input data of Xudao no. 2 were obtained by calibration and validation multi-model dataset of CMIP3 under the World Climate Research Programmer （WCRP）, the impact of the heat injury on the rice yield was simulated by the different high temperature intensity and different high temperature duration under the 2020s （2011 -2040） of A2 and A1B climate change scenarios. The results showed that the CERES-Rice model simulated better in Jiangsu province. Heat injury from the booting to heading stage caused a decline for rice production in Jiangsu province under the A2 and A1B climate change scenarios, and the decline rate of rice production reached 17%. When the high temperature intensity was constant, the longer the high temperature duration was, the more seriously rice yield decreased. So as the high temperature duration was constant, the more severe high temperature was, the more serious the heat injury on the rice yield was. So, the rice yield will be decreased by the heat injury from the booting to heading change scenafos. This provides a theoretical support for the reasonable of the disaster prevention rice production Jiangsu province. stage under the climate and mitigation measures rice production in Jiangsu province.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第1期91-96,共6页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目(11KJB210004)
国家科技支撑计划(2012BAH29B03)
