摘要
运用协整分析和误差修正模型研究了苏、锡、常城市1992～2010年经济增长与水环境污染的长期均衡与短期动态调整关系.首先运用自回归分布滞后模型中的边界检验法和Johansen协整检验法验证EKC关系的存在;然后分别运用ARDL模型和ECM模型验证经济增长与水环境污染的短期动态调整关系.研究结果表明：苏、锡、常城市部分水环境污染指标与人均GDP之间存在长期的均衡关系,模型的形式和参数有所差异,并不总是呈现EKC的倒“U”型关系;短期内人均GDP的增长对不同城市水污染指标的影响效果不同;苏、锡、常城市经济发展活动的差异对水环境质量的退化造成了不同的影响.
This paper, based on cointegration analysis and error correction model, investigates the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamic adjustment relationship between economic growth and water pollution for the years 1992 to 2010 in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou. Firstly, the existence of the environment Kuznets curve between economic growth and water poilution was verified using bound testing in Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and Johansen test. Then the dynamic ad- justment relationship between the variables was examined using error correction model. The result shows that some cities of the sample allow for the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship form for certain variables. The functional forms of long-run equilibrium relationship have lineal, quadratic and cubic model more than inverse U-shape EKC in three cities. The short-run growth of per capita GDP has different effects on water pollution in the cities of the sample. The differences among economic activity have significant effects on the deterioration of water environment.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第1期91-94,105,共5页
Soft Science
基金
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2008ZX07313-008)
关键词
误差修正模型
自回归分布滞后模型
经济增长
水环境
协整检验
error correction model
autoregressive distributed lag
economic growth
water environment
cointegration test
