摘要
能源消费、能源消费结构与经济增长间存在着密切的关系。节能减排政策的施行是否会影响到我国的经济增长，能源消费结构与能源消费间有着怎样的联系，这些都是在节能减排政策制定中亟待解决的问题。利用1978—2007年的样本数据，使用ARDL模型方法对以上三者之间的关系进行了实证研究。发现经济增长对能源消费和能源结构在长期和短期内都有显著影响，且能源消费和能源消费结构间也存在相互的影响。未发现能源消费和能源消费结构对经济增长的长期影响。推行适宜的节能减排政策不会阻滞我国的经济增长，而节能减排政策的一项重点应该是能源消费结构的优化调整。
There is a close interrelationship among energy consumption, energy consumption structure and economic growth. Whether the implementation of energy saving and emission reduction policies will affect China＇ s economic growth？ What is the relation between energy consumption and its structure？ Both of them are the problems to be solved through the policy making of energy saving and emission reduction. According to the sample data between the year 1978 and 2007, this paper has made an empirical research on the relationship between the above three by the ARDL model approach. It revealed that economic growth has a significant impact on energy consumption and its structure both in the lone-term and short-term. And there also exists mutual impact between energy consumption and its structure. No long-term impact of economic con- sumption and its structure towards economic growth has been found. The implementation of appropriate energy saving and emission reduction policies will not block China＇ s economic growth, while the energy saving and emission reduction policies should focus on the optimization of energy consumption structure adjustment.
关键词
能源消费
能源消费结构
经济增长
ARDL模型
energy consumption
energy consumption structure
economic growth
ARDL Model
