摘要
文章利用长三角地区上海市、江苏省以及浙江省的经济增长数据,构建多元虚拟变量分布滞后模型对国家长三角地区的区域发展规划效果进行评价。研究结果表明国家长三角区域发展规划政策出台后,不同政策变量对三地市的经济增长的影响存在差别,其中中央补助收入在上海和江苏的经济增长弹性显著提高,但是中央补助收入对浙江省的经济增长促进作用有所下降,同时中央转移支付与税收返还政策效果存在时滞。最后提出了结构上调整国家区域发展规划政策等对策建议。
The paper builds multiple virtual variable distribution lag model to evaluate the effect of national regional develop ment planning on Yangtze River Delta region using economic growth data of this region,which includes Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces.The results show that after the introduction of the national policy for Yangtze River Delta regional devel opment planning,there is a difference between the effects of policy variables on the impact of economic growth on the three cit ies,in which the central subsidies income in Shanghai and Jiangsu economic growth elasticity increased significantly,but the central subsidies income growth promoting effect of Zhejiang Province declined,and in the meantime the central transfer pay ments and tax refund policy displayed time lag effect.Finally we put forward some countermeasures and suggestions on the struc ture adjustment of national regional development planning policy,etc.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2014年第1期59-64,共6页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(06&ZD039)
国家自然科学基金项目(71171031)
国家发展改革委员会项目(2010-47-01)
辽宁省"百千万人才工程"项目(2012921006)
沈阳科技计划项目(F12-219-8-00)
沈阳工业大学博士启动基金
关键词
区域发展规划
长三角地区
偏相关
多元分布滞后模型
regional development planning
Yangtze River Delta region
partial correlation
multivariate distribution lag model
