摘要
延安市是陕北谷子种植面积较大的地区,但目前延安市谷子面积表现出逐年降低趋势,1980—2011年从5万hm2降低到不足2万hm2,产量也逐年降低。针对延安市谷子生产逐渐减弱的现状,从延安市谷子面积、总产及单产数据出发,运用二次指数平滑法预测延安市2020年的谷子生产趋势,结果显示,延安市谷子面积和总产逐年下降,单产水平小幅提高。最后,提出了发展延安市谷子生产的方案和建议。
Yan＇an foxtail millet planting area is larger than most areas in Shanbei region, but current area of Yah＇an foxtail millet showed a decrease trend year by year, reduced from 50 000 hm2 to less than 20 000 hmz in 1980-2011, and production reduced year by year too. According to the gradual weak situation of Yan＇an foxtail millet production, from the data of area, output and yield, the authors predicted Yan＇an foxtail millet production trend of 2020 using quadratic exponential smoothing method, the results showed that area and total production of Yah＇ an foxtail millet declined year by year and yield level increased slightly. Finally, solutions and suggestions were put forward to develop Yan＇an foxtail millet production.
出处
《农业展望》
2013年第11期54-57,共4页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
农业部/财政部(CARS-07-12.5-A18)
河北省农林科学院课题(A2012030106)
关键词
谷子
二次指数平滑法
预测
延安
foxtail millet
quadratic exponential smoothing method
prediction
Yan＇an
