摘要
无约束需求预测是提高收益管理决策准确性的重要前提,需求修复是其关键的组成部分。本文基于航空客运的需求特点,对无约束需求预测方法进行了定量研究和讨论。首先对研究的问题进行了描述,提出先将Holt模型用于需求修复,再使用Holt-Winters模型进行无约束需求预测的思想,并结合组合预测方法,建立了基于Holt的组合需求修复模型和基于Holt-Winters的组合预测模型。最后,通过数值仿真,验证了本文的无约束需求预测方法和组合模型对航空客运收益管理的可行性和有效性。
Demand forecasting without constraint is a significant premise for enhancing the veracity of revenue management decision. Based on the passenger＇ s demand characteristic of airline industry, a method of demand forecasting without constraint was studied and discussed in this paper, in which Holt model is used to mend the demand, then, Holt-Winters model is used to forecast the demand without constraint. After that, a combined demand forecasting model based on Holt and Holt-Winters models were proposed. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method for demand forecasting without constraint and the proposed combination model are validated by numerical simulation.
出处
《交通运输工程与信息学报》
2008年第2期71-78,共8页
Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information
